The international community is in a fix in the Congo. Although they would like to install Kabila as president in the first round, they have to weigh this "Passage A Force" or installation by force, against the reaction of the people. Most signs are that they are preparing to install Kabila by any means necessary:
1. Movement of Angolan troops to the border of the Congo (Kabila's special guards are primarily Angolan security forces)
2. MONUC heightened alert
3. The European troops installation in the two Kasais and Kinshasa - these are areas where most resistance to a Kabila installation is expected
4. The repeated calls for calm from all corners from the French ambassador to the so-called Committee of the Wise
The above are key signs that the international community looks to install Kabila by force. The major calculation they are in the process of making or have already made is whether or not the resistance to Kabila will spiral the country into war once again or whether the security forces (Congolese and international) will simply have to do police work to put down disgruntled Congolese activists.
It is clear that the International community does not want to risk a second round, which would reduce the chances of the elections being fixed and put a Kabila presidency in jeopardy. Whatever is decided, we will know in less than 48 hours. Unfortunately, as has been the case in the Congo for over a century, the role of the international community will in all likelihood be decisive. When this occurs the Congolese people wind up losing.
Kinshasa Vote May Lead to Run-Off
As the votes finally come in from Kinshasa, it appears that a run-off may occur in the Congo. With one of four districts reporting from Kinshasa, Kabila's lead has slipped below 50 percent to 48.6 percent and Bemba remains around 16 percent.
Each district that reports from Kinshasa will surely reduce Kabila's percentage and bring him further away from the 50 percent needed to claim the elections in the first round. Thus far a little over 13 million or 52% of the votes have been counted. Kinshasa accounts for 12 percent of the total registered voters of 25 million. Many experts believe that 80 percent of Kinshasa voters turned out.
Should these results hold, a second round will certainly occur which would mean that the pro-democracy forces initiative of the "Tous-Sauf-Kabila" in English "Anyone-but-Kabila," campaign would have succeeded to date.
Almost, all observers would agree that a second round would work in the best interest of the Congolese people and lend far more credibility to the process. Should there be a second round, it would occur on October 29, 2006, according to the latest schedule by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI).
Each district that reports from Kinshasa will surely reduce Kabila's percentage and bring him further away from the 50 percent needed to claim the elections in the first round. Thus far a little over 13 million or 52% of the votes have been counted. Kinshasa accounts for 12 percent of the total registered voters of 25 million. Many experts believe that 80 percent of Kinshasa voters turned out.
Should these results hold, a second round will certainly occur which would mean that the pro-democracy forces initiative of the "Tous-Sauf-Kabila" in English "Anyone-but-Kabila," campaign would have succeeded to date.
Almost, all observers would agree that a second round would work in the best interest of the Congolese people and lend far more credibility to the process. Should there be a second round, it would occur on October 29, 2006, according to the latest schedule by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI).
Kabila Maintains Lead – Angola Move Troops
Kabila maintains his enormous lead and remains comfortably above 50 percent. With 82 of the 169 counting centers reporting, Kabila has 54.9% of the votes while Jean Pierre Bemba has 16.7%. The votes for Kinshasa which accounts for 12% of the electorate have yet to be reported. Many candidates and activists believe the Kinshasa votes in particular are being manipulated to assure that Kabila gets through in the first round.
The president of the Electoral Commission, Malu Malu maintains that the final results will be announced on or before Sunday, August 20th. He says 93.4 percent of the presidential votes and 44.6 percent of the legislative votes have been counted.
Friends of the Congo has maintained that the aim of the Independent Electoral Commission and the international community has been to maintain Kabila in power by any means using the elections as a cover to do so. The movement of the Angolan troops to the border of the Congo, coupled with the European troops concentrating in Kinshasa and the Kasai provinces are clear signs that the international community and Congo's neighbors are prepared to install Kabila by force. They know that the pro-democracy forces in the Congo who fought against Mobutu, Kabila's father and now Kabila the son, will not quietly accept his installation.
Below are results to date of voting for the candidates:
KABILA KABANGE Joseph 3 743 573
BEMBA GOMBO Jean Pierre 1 136 905
MOBUTU NZANGA NGBANGAWE François Joseph 246 063
KASHALA LUKUMUENDA Oscar 227 568
GIZENGA Antoine 183 785
PAY PAY wa SYAKASSIGHE Pierre 175 785
LUNDA BULULU Vincent de Paul 170 465
RUBERWA MANYWA Azanias 135 975
MATUSILA MALUNGENINE KONGO Pierre Anatole 69 463
M'POYO KASA-VUBU Justine 61 014
MBUSA NYAMWISI Antipas 56 178
N'LANDU KAVIDI Wivine 43 505
NGOMA Z'AHIDI Arthur 41 789
DIOMI NDONGALA Eugène 40 069
BANYNGELA KASONGA 39 570
LUMUMBA Guy Patrice 38 303
KABATU SUILA Bernard Emmanuel 37 588
NZUZI WA MBOMBO Catherine Marthe 34 153
MUKUNGUBILA MUTOMBO Paul Joseph 32 006
LUMBALA Roger 31 462
BONIOMA KALOKOLA ALOU 31 286
NIEMBA SOUGA Jacob 27 642
KAMANDA WA KAMANGA Gérard 26 363
MBOSO N'KODIA PWANGA Christophe 23 677
MBUYI KALALA ALAFUELE 23 644
NLANDU MPOLO NENE Marie Thérèse 22 758
MOKONDA BONZA Florentin 22 045
MUKAMBA KADIATA NZEMBA Jonas 20 544
OLENGHANKOY MUKUNDJI Joseph 18 411
LIKULIA BOLONGO Norbert 12 347
THASSINDA UBA THASSINDA Hassan 12 163
MUYIMA NDJOKO Osée 12 122
MOLEKA NZULAMA Timothée 8 678
TOTAL 6 806 899
Source: http://www.cei-rdc.cd/clcr/index.html
The president of the Electoral Commission, Malu Malu maintains that the final results will be announced on or before Sunday, August 20th. He says 93.4 percent of the presidential votes and 44.6 percent of the legislative votes have been counted.
Friends of the Congo has maintained that the aim of the Independent Electoral Commission and the international community has been to maintain Kabila in power by any means using the elections as a cover to do so. The movement of the Angolan troops to the border of the Congo, coupled with the European troops concentrating in Kinshasa and the Kasai provinces are clear signs that the international community and Congo's neighbors are prepared to install Kabila by force. They know that the pro-democracy forces in the Congo who fought against Mobutu, Kabila's father and now Kabila the son, will not quietly accept his installation.
Below are results to date of voting for the candidates:
KABILA KABANGE Joseph 3 743 573
BEMBA GOMBO Jean Pierre 1 136 905
MOBUTU NZANGA NGBANGAWE François Joseph 246 063
KASHALA LUKUMUENDA Oscar 227 568
GIZENGA Antoine 183 785
PAY PAY wa SYAKASSIGHE Pierre 175 785
LUNDA BULULU Vincent de Paul 170 465
RUBERWA MANYWA Azanias 135 975
MATUSILA MALUNGENINE KONGO Pierre Anatole 69 463
M'POYO KASA-VUBU Justine 61 014
MBUSA NYAMWISI Antipas 56 178
N'LANDU KAVIDI Wivine 43 505
NGOMA Z'AHIDI Arthur 41 789
DIOMI NDONGALA Eugène 40 069
BANYNGELA KASONGA 39 570
LUMUMBA Guy Patrice 38 303
KABATU SUILA Bernard Emmanuel 37 588
NZUZI WA MBOMBO Catherine Marthe 34 153
MUKUNGUBILA MUTOMBO Paul Joseph 32 006
LUMBALA Roger 31 462
BONIOMA KALOKOLA ALOU 31 286
NIEMBA SOUGA Jacob 27 642
KAMANDA WA KAMANGA Gérard 26 363
MBOSO N'KODIA PWANGA Christophe 23 677
MBUYI KALALA ALAFUELE 23 644
NLANDU MPOLO NENE Marie Thérèse 22 758
MOKONDA BONZA Florentin 22 045
MUKAMBA KADIATA NZEMBA Jonas 20 544
OLENGHANKOY MUKUNDJI Joseph 18 411
LIKULIA BOLONGO Norbert 12 347
THASSINDA UBA THASSINDA Hassan 12 163
MUYIMA NDJOKO Osée 12 122
MOLEKA NZULAMA Timothée 8 678
TOTAL 6 806 899
Source: http://www.cei-rdc.cd/clcr/index.html
Kabila Maintains Lead
With almost half of the votes in Kabila remains above 50 percent at 53.3% while his closest follower Jean Pierre Bemba is at 17.5%. Votes from 78 of 169 constituencies have been counted. Even though votes from Kinshasa were promised last Friday, results have yet to be released. On Monday, the CEI issued a release to political parties and candidates indicating that they have 48 hours to contest results from polling stations.
The big challenge for the CEI and the international community remains how they can make Kabila win in the first round. It is almost impossible for him to win fairly in the first round but you can rest assured that there is a lot of behind the scenes efforts to make sure this happens.
Our readers are asking some simple questions regarding the balloting but answers are fleeting because the electoral process in the Congo is anything but free, fair and transparent. It was orchestrated from the outset to produce a desired result - the maintenance of Kabila in power. Let us see if the result will be achieved. The first announcement of the final results is still expected on this coming Sunday, August 20, 2006.
The big challenge for the CEI and the international community remains how they can make Kabila win in the first round. It is almost impossible for him to win fairly in the first round but you can rest assured that there is a lot of behind the scenes efforts to make sure this happens.
Our readers are asking some simple questions regarding the balloting but answers are fleeting because the electoral process in the Congo is anything but free, fair and transparent. It was orchestrated from the outset to produce a desired result - the maintenance of Kabila in power. Let us see if the result will be achieved. The first announcement of the final results is still expected on this coming Sunday, August 20, 2006.
Kabila’s Lead Slips
As the count continues to unfold in the Congo, Kabila's lead wavers. Very reliable sources in the Congo share with Friends of the Congo that the central challenge for the independent Electoral Commission (CEI) and the Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT) is how to make Kabila the winner in the first round. It is believed that the international community does not want to expend the $26 million that it would take to organize a second round of voting. One may ask, why doesn't the Congo pay for the second round? Unfortunately, much of the government's money has been used by those who had access to the state trough to run their election campaigns. It is estimated that Kabila spent $63 million on his campaign.
Even as we watch these numbers unfold each day the real deal is what is taking place behind the scenes. There are a few structural issues preventing the vote from being fixed so that Kabila wins in the first round. Although, Kabila has been given incredibly large margins in the east of the country, the eastern provinces do not account for more than 46 percent of the total voting population, therefore even if he were to receive 100 percent of the votes from the eastern provinces, he would not have enough to exceed 50 percent and win in the first round.
Thus far, with 4.7 million of about 20 million votes counted, Kabila has 51 percent and Jean Pierre Bemba 19 percent. Kinshasa which accounts for about 12 percent of the electorate has yet to be counted. Kinshasa is widely expected to break in favor of Bemba.
Although the final results are to be released on the 20th, by the middle of the week, we should know whether or not a second round will occur or whether Kabila will win in the first round.
Even as we watch these numbers unfold each day the real deal is what is taking place behind the scenes. There are a few structural issues preventing the vote from being fixed so that Kabila wins in the first round. Although, Kabila has been given incredibly large margins in the east of the country, the eastern provinces do not account for more than 46 percent of the total voting population, therefore even if he were to receive 100 percent of the votes from the eastern provinces, he would not have enough to exceed 50 percent and win in the first round.
Thus far, with 4.7 million of about 20 million votes counted, Kabila has 51 percent and Jean Pierre Bemba 19 percent. Kinshasa which accounts for about 12 percent of the electorate has yet to be counted. Kinshasa is widely expected to break in favor of Bemba.
Although the final results are to be released on the 20th, by the middle of the week, we should know whether or not a second round will occur or whether Kabila will win in the first round.
Results Still Show Kabila in the Lead, Moving Beyond the 50% Mark
The latest results released by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) still shows Kabila in the lead moving beyond the 50 percent mark need to win in the first round. With almost 20 percent of the votes in, Kabila is at 55 percent and Bemba 18 percent. They are followed by Pierre Pay-Pay, former governor of the Central Bank, with 2 percent and Harvard-trained Doctor, Oscar Kashala also with 2 percent
The results are based on 47 of the 169 counting centers reporting. Although the CEI promised results for Kinshasa on Friday the 11th, no figures have been released. Kinshasa is expected to be strongly in the favor of Jean Pierre Bemba; with its population of 8 million inhabitants, it represents 12 percent of all registered voters.
It still remains both fascinating and puzzling that almost all the international observers have left the Congo, yet NONE of the European forces has left. Observers who are still in the Congo, complain about being blocked from entering the counting stations in the east - areas where Kabila is scoring 85 - 90 percent. Does this seem strange or unusual to anyone? The observers came, they witnessed a vote and then they left. What about the counting of the votes? Those votes that are being dumped en mass, burned and are not adding up?
Imagine if Jean Pierre Bemba, another strongman who has his own military, has had access to the state coffers and owns his own media, was not in the race? The organizing of the so-called free, fair and transparent elections would have been even more farcical than it is now. Outside of the two strongmen (Kabila and Bemba), none of the 33 candidates is registering more than 2 percent. So let's see in a country of 60 million people,only two strongmen are capable of obtaining substantive support from the populace?
The organizing of the elections were structurally flawed because they were organized to legitimize Kabila's rule not to bring democracy to the Congo. The pro-democracy forces in the Congo are doing a yeoman's job to counter the international community's latest attempt to control the riches of the Congo and impose a leader who serves foreign interests not the interests of the Congolese people.
The results are based on 47 of the 169 counting centers reporting. Although the CEI promised results for Kinshasa on Friday the 11th, no figures have been released. Kinshasa is expected to be strongly in the favor of Jean Pierre Bemba; with its population of 8 million inhabitants, it represents 12 percent of all registered voters.
It still remains both fascinating and puzzling that almost all the international observers have left the Congo, yet NONE of the European forces has left. Observers who are still in the Congo, complain about being blocked from entering the counting stations in the east - areas where Kabila is scoring 85 - 90 percent. Does this seem strange or unusual to anyone? The observers came, they witnessed a vote and then they left. What about the counting of the votes? Those votes that are being dumped en mass, burned and are not adding up?
Imagine if Jean Pierre Bemba, another strongman who has his own military, has had access to the state coffers and owns his own media, was not in the race? The organizing of the so-called free, fair and transparent elections would have been even more farcical than it is now. Outside of the two strongmen (Kabila and Bemba), none of the 33 candidates is registering more than 2 percent. So let's see in a country of 60 million people,only two strongmen are capable of obtaining substantive support from the populace?
The organizing of the elections were structurally flawed because they were organized to legitimize Kabila's rule not to bring democracy to the Congo. The pro-democracy forces in the Congo are doing a yeoman's job to counter the international community's latest attempt to control the riches of the Congo and impose a leader who serves foreign interests not the interests of the Congolese people.
Poll Results Continue to Trickle Out
Early poll results have Kabila leading. The latest report gives Kabila 46 percent and Bemba 24 percent. The results are draw from 25 of the 169 counting centers where the results are being posted. The 25 account for 15 percent of the total voting centers reporting. Centers reporting are evenly split between the east and the west, about half of the 25 comes from the east and the other half form the west with a couple in the center of the country.
The east-west divide that the media and many analysts are proffering are questionable at best. People in the west of the country do not dislike Kabila because he does not speak Lingala. True, they believe he is a foreigner but probably more substantive is that they believe Kabila has sold the country's wealth to the West while pocketing monies for himself. They also see him as a tool of the west who has dictatorial designs. People in kinshasa, especially believe that if the West is able to put him in power, he will solidify a dictatorial regime.
There is still a long way to go. We will provide daily updates as the results come out. Should you read French, you can follow the updates directly from the Independent Electoral Commission's website.
The east-west divide that the media and many analysts are proffering are questionable at best. People in the west of the country do not dislike Kabila because he does not speak Lingala. True, they believe he is a foreigner but probably more substantive is that they believe Kabila has sold the country's wealth to the West while pocketing monies for himself. They also see him as a tool of the west who has dictatorial designs. People in kinshasa, especially believe that if the West is able to put him in power, he will solidify a dictatorial regime.
There is still a long way to go. We will provide daily updates as the results come out. Should you read French, you can follow the updates directly from the Independent Electoral Commission's website.
Counting of Ballots Remain Problematic
Today the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) released results from 8 of 169 constituencies. Interestingly enough, the CEI began the releases in the east of the country where incumbent president Joseph Kabila performed best. Kabila is well ahead in the 8 constituencies reported, garnering as high as 85 percent of the votes in some cities.
International observers continue to report irregularities in the counting. Vote counting has been chaotic, ballots in two vote centers in Kinshasa have been destroyed by fire. In addition, observers have been blocked from entering vote centers to verify the counting. The European Observer mission said "The process is lacking checks and balances of transparency,"
Tense days are ahead as there is deep skepticism in Kinshasa where opponents to Kabila firmly believe that the international community will stop at nothing to install Kabila for another five years, even it means fixing the results.
International observers continue to report irregularities in the counting. Vote counting has been chaotic, ballots in two vote centers in Kinshasa have been destroyed by fire. In addition, observers have been blocked from entering vote centers to verify the counting. The European Observer mission said "The process is lacking checks and balances of transparency,"
Tense days are ahead as there is deep skepticism in Kinshasa where opponents to Kabila firmly believe that the international community will stop at nothing to install Kabila for another five years, even it means fixing the results.
Uranium Makes Self-Determination Questionable at Best
The London Times reported that in October of 2005 Iran attempted to import Uranium 238 from the Congo. Tanzanian port inspectors found the uranium among coltan that was being shipped to Iran. Iran rejected the report and called it "utterly untrue" and part of a psychological warfare by the West.
In spite of whether the reports are true or not, the whole affair re-affirms Congo's geo-strategic importance to the West. This does not bode well for the Congolese because if they can count on nothing else, they can count on the West attempting to determine who will rule the Congo just as they did for almost four decades when they assassinated Patrice Lumumba and installed the brutal dictator Mobutu Sese Seko. The pre-text of course will be to keep strategic minerals such as uranium from terrorists and terrorist states. When the security interests of the West are at stake, it usually means the wellbeing of non-western people are subordinated to these interests and the resultant effect is more suffering for a beleaguered people.
The challenge of the Congo is particularly acute today. Congolese leaders must organize themselves to defend the interests of their people and people of goodwill throughout the globe must work with Congolese to stave off foreign intervention in the Congo.
In spite of whether the reports are true or not, the whole affair re-affirms Congo's geo-strategic importance to the West. This does not bode well for the Congolese because if they can count on nothing else, they can count on the West attempting to determine who will rule the Congo just as they did for almost four decades when they assassinated Patrice Lumumba and installed the brutal dictator Mobutu Sese Seko. The pre-text of course will be to keep strategic minerals such as uranium from terrorists and terrorist states. When the security interests of the West are at stake, it usually means the wellbeing of non-western people are subordinated to these interests and the resultant effect is more suffering for a beleaguered people.
The challenge of the Congo is particularly acute today. Congolese leaders must organize themselves to defend the interests of their people and people of goodwill throughout the globe must work with Congolese to stave off foreign intervention in the Congo.
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) to Start Publishing Results on August 7, 2006
Do to growing unrest and speculation, it appears that the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) will start publishing results from polling stations as soon as they come in. Sisa Ngombane, South African Ambassador to the DRC suggested that the CEI take the initiative and start publishing the results as opposed to waiting until the 20th of August.
The BBC reported today that there is increasing irregularities in the counting of the votes. Human Rights watch said "foreign observers' work in the eastern region of Ituri was being severely restricted." Also, in other parts of the East according to Human rights Watch large number of ballots are being dumped and in Kinshasa reporters have observed a substantial number of ballots being burned. The Carter Center said that each day new irregularities are being reported and each new report "chips away" at the integrity of the voting process.
The BBC reported today that there is increasing irregularities in the counting of the votes. Human Rights watch said "foreign observers' work in the eastern region of Ituri was being severely restricted." Also, in other parts of the East according to Human rights Watch large number of ballots are being dumped and in Kinshasa reporters have observed a substantial number of ballots being burned. The Carter Center said that each day new irregularities are being reported and each new report "chips away" at the integrity of the voting process.