According to one of the Friends of the Congo's observers on the ground in the Congo, one would hardly know that an election campaign is underway. Our observer has noted that in Kinshasa there is an eerie calm, there is not the usual fanfare and activity that goes along with a campaign, especially one for the presidency.
Our observation is reinforced by several facts. Neither Kabila nor Bemba has left Kinshasa to campaign in the other provinces. They have either sent their wives or surrogates to campaign in the rest of the country. Many reasons have been offered for the candidates' reluctance to travel throughout the country to campaign, ranging from a shortage of funds to fear of being attacked in areas that do not support them. However, probably the most plausible reason is that both are focused on reinforcing their presence in Kinshasa. It is said about the Congo that he who holds Kinshasa, holds the Congo. Kinshasa is not merely the nation's capital but it is the cultural hub and strategic fulcrum on which the Congo balances. Almost all reports coming from the Congo indicate that both Kabila and Bemba are reinforcing their military strength in Kinshasa. In fact, it can be plausibly argued that they have prepared more for conflict than they have for the elections.
One continues to hope for a peaceful outcome to these fundamentally and tragically flawed elections but the indicators are not promising. Partisans of both Kabila and Bemba have been physically attacked while campaigning in different parts of the country. Arms continue to flow into Kinshasa and Kabila has recently made changes in his cabinet to bring in military men in key posts in his government. As for Bemba, he is under United Nations protection, about 10 armored U.N. vehicles now guard his residence.
Should the two camps launch an all out war, there is little that the United Nations and European troops can do, even though they have beefed up their presence in Kinshasa. Both the British and US governments are like canaries flying out of the mine. They have asked their citizens to leave the Congo in advance of the October 29 elections.
The Second Round Has Begun: Will it Usher in More War or a Path to Democratic Rule?
The second round of the presidential elections began on Saturday October 15 and will culminate in a nationwide vote on Sunday, October 29, 2006. Although, it appears that progress is being made and elections are being held, there is an eerie air of uncertainty surrounding the second round of voting. The international community led by the Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT in French) repeatedly calls for the acceptance of the final results, it appears that Bemba and Kabila are preparing more for war than an election campaign.
By almost all accounts, arms continue to flow into Kinshasa, the nation’s capital. Kabila has made changes in his cabinet which are tantamount to the further militarization of his government. Neither Bemba nor Kabila has integrated their security forces into the national army. Kabila is estimated to have approximately 15,000 presidential guards and Bemba approximately 5,000 security forces.
The campaign is already off to a rocky start. Supporters of both candidates clashed at Mbandaka, capital of the province of Equateur and television stations have been attacked in both Kinshasa and Katanga province.
There is tremendous cause for concern. Our sources have indicated that neither Kabila nor Bemba is prepared to concede to the other in spite of the results.
By almost all accounts, arms continue to flow into Kinshasa, the nation’s capital. Kabila has made changes in his cabinet which are tantamount to the further militarization of his government. Neither Bemba nor Kabila has integrated their security forces into the national army. Kabila is estimated to have approximately 15,000 presidential guards and Bemba approximately 5,000 security forces.
The campaign is already off to a rocky start. Supporters of both candidates clashed at Mbandaka, capital of the province of Equateur and television stations have been attacked in both Kinshasa and Katanga province.
There is tremendous cause for concern. Our sources have indicated that neither Kabila nor Bemba is prepared to concede to the other in spite of the results.
John Le Carre Says Congo Was Merely a Backdrop to Mission Song
John Le Carre in his latest novel says that he did not intend to write about the Congo. He noted that Congo was merely a backdrop to the central story. He goes on to state "But the novel isn't really set in the Congo at all - or so I had almost persuaded myself by the time I began my journey. It's a romantic satire, for Heaven's sake, written with both feet firmly off the ground! It's about Tony Blair's England, and good old-fashioned colonial exploitation, and political hypocrisy and shameless public lies, and other scores I had to settle. It's about the quest for identity in our multi-ethnic society, and New Labour's assault on our civil liberties, and a bunch of other similarly lofty themes!
The Congo is just backcloth, an abstraction, a symbol of perpetual colonial exploitation, slaughter, famine and disorder. To meet it face to face would only violate the delicate illusion - or so I had tried to believe."
Read the entire story of Le Carre's trip to the Congo!
Alliances Develop in Advance of the Second Round
Over the past week a series of alliances have developed in advance of the run-off between Jean Pierre Bemba and Joseph Kabila. Although many of the Congolese progressive and opposition forces believe a choice between Kabila and Bemba is tantamount to choosing between the plague and cholera, for the most part, they are beginning to become more engaged and are lining up in support of one of the two candidates.
Two candidates (Nazanga Mobutu 4.7% and Antoine Gizenga 13.0%) who did relatively well in the first round have thrown their support behind Kabila. Bemba has garnered the support of 15 of the presidential candidates and is seeking support from Etienne Tshisekedi and his UDPS political party.
The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) announced the campaign period will run from October 13 - 27, 2006. Campaigning for the provincial elections will run from September 28 to October 27. Voting will take place on October 29, 2006 both for the presidential run-off and the provincial elections.
In spite of the alliances being formed, with each passing day, it appears that both sides are simultaneously preparing for conflict. Reports continue to unfold of heavy artillery and arms streaming into the city for both Kabila and Bemba.
Events such as the arrests of street children who are accused of stirring unrest on behalf of Bemba, the burning down of Bemba's television stations, harassment and jailing of journalists, have all added to the tension in the city.
It is difficult to say how the elections will unfold, however, one thing is clear, as long as the security forces of Kabila and Bemba are not disarmed or credibly integrated into the national army, the chances of violence occurring during the election period increases exponentially.
Two candidates (Nazanga Mobutu 4.7% and Antoine Gizenga 13.0%) who did relatively well in the first round have thrown their support behind Kabila. Bemba has garnered the support of 15 of the presidential candidates and is seeking support from Etienne Tshisekedi and his UDPS political party.
The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) announced the campaign period will run from October 13 - 27, 2006. Campaigning for the provincial elections will run from September 28 to October 27. Voting will take place on October 29, 2006 both for the presidential run-off and the provincial elections.
In spite of the alliances being formed, with each passing day, it appears that both sides are simultaneously preparing for conflict. Reports continue to unfold of heavy artillery and arms streaming into the city for both Kabila and Bemba.
Events such as the arrests of street children who are accused of stirring unrest on behalf of Bemba, the burning down of Bemba's television stations, harassment and jailing of journalists, have all added to the tension in the city.
It is difficult to say how the elections will unfold, however, one thing is clear, as long as the security forces of Kabila and Bemba are not disarmed or credibly integrated into the national army, the chances of violence occurring during the election period increases exponentially.
Kabila & Bemba Meet While Supreme Court Rules October 29 Run-Off Date Unconstitutional
Kabila and Bemba finally met on Wednesday, September 13 during a meeting of the head of state and the four vice presidents. Both men were escorted to the meeting by United Nations troops. The two met alone for two hours after the meeting of the larger group. No proclamations or statements were issued by representatives of either camp. The meeting came in the wake of a flurry of diplomatic efforts by the South Africa, The European Union and Great Britain. The meeting is yet another step in the direction of calming tensions between the two camps but there is a long way to go to arrive at a point where the Congolese people can be assured of a peaceful run-off and acceptance by either party of the run-off election results.
On another note, the Supreme Court ruled that the October 29th date set by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) was unconstitutional. According to article 71 of the Congolese constitution the run off elections are supposed to take place 15 days after the announcement of the final/official results of the first round of elections. However, the constitution is silent on the exact date that the announcement of the first round of elections ought to take place. In fact, the Supreme Court has yet to announce the official results of the July 30th elections. Preliminary results had Kabila at 45% (5% short of the 50% needed to win an outright majority) and 20% for Bemba, which triggered the run-off.
The CEI argues that in light of the logistical challenges posed by organizing elections in the Congo, there is no way that a second round of elections can be organized in 15 days. The CEI submitted its case or justification for the October 29 calendar date on September 5, 2006. The Supreme Court has yet to rule on the CEI's case. Nonetheless, Wednesday's Supreme Court ruling complicates the political environment and adds another element of uncertainty in an already tenuous climate.
However, we must remember that we are talking about the Congo which for all intents and purposes is currently under defacto international tutelage and/or trusteeship. If the Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT in French) wants the elections held on October 29, it will be held on that date irrespective of what the Congolese constitution says. It is the representative countries of the CIAT mainly from the European Union who are paying the $46 million for the second round of elections, therefore in the end they call the shots even though it may not be publicly stated.
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Note: Picture by Kevin Jordan of MONUC
Diplomatic Flurry to Bring the Belligerents Together
Thus far this week,Kinshasa, DRC has witnessed a diplomatic flurry, from the President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki to the European Union foreign policy and security chief, Javier Solana,as well as Hilary Benn, the UK secretary of state for international development. All are in the Congo to try and assure a peaceful second rounds of elections.
Some progress has been made but the situation remains tenuous. Kabila gave permission for Jean Pierre Bemba's television stations to be back on the air. Bemba's camp indicated that this was a positive in the right direction that brings the two belligerents close to face-to-face talks. One of Bemba's condition for talks with Kabila was to have his television stations turned on by the Kabila government.
There is still grave concern regarding the outbreak of violence leading up to and during the run-off elections for president on October 29, 2006. All indications are that both the Kabila camp and the Bemba camp are well armed and ready to do battle. Nonetheless, Hilar Benn reported in a press conference that he got the two men to agree to meet in an effort to arrive at an accord that will pave the way to a stable and peacful second round of voting. A specific date had not been set for the meeting.
We must reiterate the vast gap that exists between the two belligerents and the Congolese people. The Congolese people clearly demonstrated their will for peace, stability and the ascendancy to power via the ballot. On the other hand, Kabila and Bemba appear to be holding the Congolese people hostage through violence as a result of their quest for power and riches by any means necessary. It is no wonder many Congolese said the choice between the two in the second round is like choosing between cholera and the plague.
Some progress has been made but the situation remains tenuous. Kabila gave permission for Jean Pierre Bemba's television stations to be back on the air. Bemba's camp indicated that this was a positive in the right direction that brings the two belligerents close to face-to-face talks. One of Bemba's condition for talks with Kabila was to have his television stations turned on by the Kabila government.
There is still grave concern regarding the outbreak of violence leading up to and during the run-off elections for president on October 29, 2006. All indications are that both the Kabila camp and the Bemba camp are well armed and ready to do battle. Nonetheless, Hilar Benn reported in a press conference that he got the two men to agree to meet in an effort to arrive at an accord that will pave the way to a stable and peacful second round of voting. A specific date had not been set for the meeting.
We must reiterate the vast gap that exists between the two belligerents and the Congolese people. The Congolese people clearly demonstrated their will for peace, stability and the ascendancy to power via the ballot. On the other hand, Kabila and Bemba appear to be holding the Congolese people hostage through violence as a result of their quest for power and riches by any means necessary. It is no wonder many Congolese said the choice between the two in the second round is like choosing between cholera and the plague.
Legislative Race: Presidential Coalition Does Not Win Majority
The Independent Electoral Commission released the legislative results today. Kabila's coalition, the Alliance of a Presidential Majority (AMP) garnered 200 seats while Jean Pierre Bemba's Rally of Congolese Nationalist (RCN) won 100 seats. The remaining 200 of the 500 seat parliament went to other parties and independent candidates. More than 9,700 candidates ran for the 500 seats.
Within the AMP and RCN coalitions, kabila's party, the PPRD won 111 of the 200 seats while Bemba's MLC won 64 of the 100 seats. The other 325 seats are split among 130 different groups. Click here for a comprehensive list of seats won by each party and independents in each of the provinces.
The new parliament is expected to be seated in 15 days. The parliament is responsible for choosing the prime minister. Since no one party or alliance won a majority, the diverse groupings will have to work together to arrive at a consensus as to who will be appointed as prime minister.
Within the AMP and RCN coalitions, kabila's party, the PPRD won 111 of the 200 seats while Bemba's MLC won 64 of the 100 seats. The other 325 seats are split among 130 different groups. Click here for a comprehensive list of seats won by each party and independents in each of the provinces.
The new parliament is expected to be seated in 15 days. The parliament is responsible for choosing the prime minister. Since no one party or alliance won a majority, the diverse groupings will have to work together to arrive at a consensus as to who will be appointed as prime minister.
Update: Legislative Results
With almost all the attention focused on the presidential race, the legislative/parliamentary races get very little focus. Five hundred seats are up for grabs and over 9,000 candidates are running for these seats. Once the parliament is in place and the president determined, the parliament will elect a prime minister.
Thus far results have come in for 324 of the 500 parliamentary seats. The 31-party Alliance of the Presidential Majority, headed by Kabila, gained 161 seats. The 23-party Rally of Congolese Nationalists (Renaco) of jean Pierre Bemba, is in second place with 45 seats. The remainder of the seats are captured by other parties and independent candidates.
It is important to remember that these two major coalitions are coalitions of convenience, there is no guarantee that they are likely to hold. In fact, one can expect much "horse trading" as the final results are reported.
Thus far results have come in for 324 of the 500 parliamentary seats. The 31-party Alliance of the Presidential Majority, headed by Kabila, gained 161 seats. The 23-party Rally of Congolese Nationalists (Renaco) of jean Pierre Bemba, is in second place with 45 seats. The remainder of the seats are captured by other parties and independent candidates.
It is important to remember that these two major coalitions are coalitions of convenience, there is no guarantee that they are likely to hold. In fact, one can expect much "horse trading" as the final results are reported.
Truth Behind the Conflict Begins to Unfold
As Friends of the Congo reported in previous dispatches, reliable sources in Kinshasa had shared with us that on the Friday before the election results were announced, William Swing, the head of the United Nations Mission in the Congo (MONUC) and the Committee to Assist the Transition (CIAT), told Kabila he did not win the elections in the first round.
The plan was to have Kabila pass in the first round, however, the political opposition launched a last-minute campaign they called "Tout Sauf Kabila (TSK)" or anyone but Kabila. It is not so much that this campaign generated the necessary votes to prevent Kabila from obtaining a majority but rather it was the pressure that the campaign put on CIAT and the CEI making it clear that if Kabila won in the first round there would be widespread violence and the country would become ungovernable.
Kabila, to say the least was upset that he did not get the presidency in the first round. This triggered a number of events that few paid attention to and now is being reported by some newspapers. It went almost entirely unnoticed but the BBC reported that Kabila went on state television on the Sunday night that the election results were announced and said that he had won "a great victory."
La Libre Belgique (FRENCH), recently reported that Kabila's presidential guard unleashed rounds of gunfire from 6 pm to 11 pm on Sunday, August 20, 2006, all in an attempt to prevent the Electoral Commission from announcing results which Kabila knew in advance. The United Nations had to bring in 15 tanks to escort the president of the Electoral Commission, Malu Malu, to the television station so he could announce the results.
La Libre Belgique continued in its report to state that when Kabila's presidential guard fired on Bemba's house on the 21st of August, they knew in advance that Bemba would be meeting with foreign ambassadors and representatives of the security council.
The question that begs a clear response, is why the silence from the international community? Why is it that the United Nations, European Union or the United States have remained silent when their ambassadors and diplomats sustained heavy artillery fire for five hours? Moreover, why did Jean Pierre Bemba have to be put under United Nations protection? As reporters delve further into these questions the obvious answers will reveal themselves.
Representatives of Bemba and Kabila continue to negotiate a detente and a path to the second round of elections scheduled for October 29, 2006. Some of the conditions presented by both camps are quite revealing. Bemba would like his helicopter that was blown up by Kabila's presidential guard replaced. He also requested that his television stations that were illegal closed by Kabila be reopened. Finally, he requested that any meeting that occurs between the two men occur in neutral territory.
Kabila's requests were quite intriguing, first he requested that any meeting that occurs with Bemba, takes place at the president's office. In addition, he requested that the October 29th date scheduled for the second round be moved up sooner, presumably this would favor his campaign.
The situation is still very uncertain in the country. Arms shipment are coming into the country both for Kabila's presidential guard and Bemba's rebel forces. The CEI does not yet have the $46 million needed to fund a second round of elections. Again, there was no plan to have a second round. The entire organizing of the elections were meant to pass Kabila in the first round. Before the voting, Malu Malu pleaded with the Congolese people to be wise and mature and elect a president in the first round. The people were more wise and mature than Malu Malu gave them credit.
The plan was to have Kabila pass in the first round, however, the political opposition launched a last-minute campaign they called "Tout Sauf Kabila (TSK)" or anyone but Kabila. It is not so much that this campaign generated the necessary votes to prevent Kabila from obtaining a majority but rather it was the pressure that the campaign put on CIAT and the CEI making it clear that if Kabila won in the first round there would be widespread violence and the country would become ungovernable.
Kabila, to say the least was upset that he did not get the presidency in the first round. This triggered a number of events that few paid attention to and now is being reported by some newspapers. It went almost entirely unnoticed but the BBC reported that Kabila went on state television on the Sunday night that the election results were announced and said that he had won "a great victory."
La Libre Belgique (FRENCH), recently reported that Kabila's presidential guard unleashed rounds of gunfire from 6 pm to 11 pm on Sunday, August 20, 2006, all in an attempt to prevent the Electoral Commission from announcing results which Kabila knew in advance. The United Nations had to bring in 15 tanks to escort the president of the Electoral Commission, Malu Malu, to the television station so he could announce the results.
La Libre Belgique continued in its report to state that when Kabila's presidential guard fired on Bemba's house on the 21st of August, they knew in advance that Bemba would be meeting with foreign ambassadors and representatives of the security council.
The question that begs a clear response, is why the silence from the international community? Why is it that the United Nations, European Union or the United States have remained silent when their ambassadors and diplomats sustained heavy artillery fire for five hours? Moreover, why did Jean Pierre Bemba have to be put under United Nations protection? As reporters delve further into these questions the obvious answers will reveal themselves.
Representatives of Bemba and Kabila continue to negotiate a detente and a path to the second round of elections scheduled for October 29, 2006. Some of the conditions presented by both camps are quite revealing. Bemba would like his helicopter that was blown up by Kabila's presidential guard replaced. He also requested that his television stations that were illegal closed by Kabila be reopened. Finally, he requested that any meeting that occurs between the two men occur in neutral territory.
Kabila's requests were quite intriguing, first he requested that any meeting that occurs with Bemba, takes place at the president's office. In addition, he requested that the October 29th date scheduled for the second round be moved up sooner, presumably this would favor his campaign.
The situation is still very uncertain in the country. Arms shipment are coming into the country both for Kabila's presidential guard and Bemba's rebel forces. The CEI does not yet have the $46 million needed to fund a second round of elections. Again, there was no plan to have a second round. The entire organizing of the elections were meant to pass Kabila in the first round. Before the voting, Malu Malu pleaded with the Congolese people to be wise and mature and elect a president in the first round. The people were more wise and mature than Malu Malu gave them credit.
Fragile Calm in Kinshasa
Another day of calm has passed in Kinshasa but below the surface tensions are still high. Diplomats continue to work to bring Kabila and Bemba together to diffuse the tension. Kabila called for a meeting of the four vice-presidents on Saturday but Bemba did not show. His people said that they were not aware of a meeting. Diplomats see this as a sign that progress is not being made on bringing the two sides to the table to diffuse the tensions diplomatically.
It appears that Kabila does not want to meet with Bemba one-on-one. Bemba said he would meet with Kabila only after certain conditions are met, for example the meeting would have to take place under United Nations supervision. Both sides are holding to their incendiary language and seem to be preparing more for war than a second round of elections, which is scheduled for October 29, 2006.
The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) began posting the results of the legislative races. The CEI expects to have complete national results posted by September 4th. Almost 10,000 individuals nationwide ran for 500 parliamentary seats. According to the constitution, parliament chooses the Prime Minister.
It appears that Kabila does not want to meet with Bemba one-on-one. Bemba said he would meet with Kabila only after certain conditions are met, for example the meeting would have to take place under United Nations supervision. Both sides are holding to their incendiary language and seem to be preparing more for war than a second round of elections, which is scheduled for October 29, 2006.
The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) began posting the results of the legislative races. The CEI expects to have complete national results posted by September 4th. Almost 10,000 individuals nationwide ran for 500 parliamentary seats. According to the constitution, parliament chooses the Prime Minister.