The announcement, although made on social media by General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, comes as a bombshell. The Chief of Staff of the Ugandan People’s Defence Force (UPDF) is threatening to withdraw his troops from the territories of Lubero and Mahagi, officially from the beginning of April. Behind this ‘stealthy’ decision lie growing tensions and suspicions of double-dealing that are poisoning military cooperation between the DRC and Uganda.

This dramatic move by Kampala is no trivial matter. It comes in the wake of a damning report by the Kivu Security Barometer (KST). According to this organization, the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) openly suspect the Ugandan army of supporting Thomas Lubanga’s CRP (Cooperative for the Economic Development of Congo) militia.

The report highlights a troubling ‘proximity’ between the UPDF and the militiamen in the town of Savo, noting the inaction of Ugandan troops during CRP attacks on FARDC positions.

‘The FARDC continues to suspect the Ugandan army (UPDF) of supporting the CRP. This month, this suspicion has been particularly reinforced by the proximity observed between the CRP and the UPDF in the town of Savo and the UPDF’s inaction towards this militia, including during its attacks against the FARDC,” states the Kivu Security Barometer.

This climate of mistrust reached a peak in mid-March, when the administrator of the Mahagi territory instructed the DGM to prohibit the Ugandan army from entering the area, even on an informal basis.

Whilst General Muhoozi speaks of coordination with the Congolese government regarding this withdrawal stretching from Lubero to Mahagi, his posts on X (formerly Twitter) reveal a far more political motivation. Uganda appears to be demanding the head of Lieutenant-General Luboya Nkashama Johnny, the current military governor of Ituri.

“All UPDF troops will withdraw from Lubero in the coming days if the governor of Ituri is not replaced,” insisted President Museveni’s son. This statement confirms that cooperation between the military administration of Ituri and the Ugandan command has now reached an impasse, with Kampala viewing Governor Luboya as an obstacle to its interests or strategy on the ground.

This announced withdrawal strangely coincides with troop movements by the M23 rebel group in certain areas of Lubero territory. For many observers, this clash of agendas raises questions about the strength of regional alliances.

Although official sources in Kampala have not yet formally notified this withdrawal through the usual diplomatic channels, the threat is being taken seriously in Kinshasa. The question now is whether this crisis will be resolved through diplomatic channels or whether it marks the end of the military agreement allowing Uganda to operate on Congolese soil.

Written by Azarias Mokonzi